U.S. Farmland under Threat of Urbanization: Future Development Scenarios to 2040

Urbanization imperils agriculture by converting farmland into uncultivable impervious surfaces and other uses that limit land productivity. Despite the considerable loss of productive croplands due to historic urbanization in United States, little is known about locations magnitudes extant agricultural still under threat future urban expansion. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit machine learning-based method predict development through 2040 business-as-usual scenario explored its occurrence on existing farmland. We found if continues at same pace as between 2001 2016, 2040, highly areas low-density residential will increase 9.5 21 million acres, respectively. This would result 18 acres lost, fragmented, or compromised (~2% total lands 2016), with remainder projected occurring types natural semi-natural lands. Of affected lands, 6.2 (34%) be converted 12 (66%) uses. Agricultural losses are greatest fast-growing regions such Texas, California, Southeast, outskirts metropolitan across country, especially Midwest, where more concentrated. The percentage highest along East Coast, many forecasted expand onto limited remaining pool cultivable These findings can help guide efforts local, state, federal policymakers reduce use competition systems mitigate impacts